Are Poles ready to defend their country today? The latest public opinion poll shows a clear shift in public sentiment. In his commentary, Nikolai Susuyev analyzes the IBRiS survey results and considers their implications for Poland’s security and society’s resilience in the face of growing threats.
The growing threat and the question of society’s preparedness
For several years now, debate has been raging in Europe about whether or not Russia is capable of attacking the countries of its eastern flank, and if so, when exactly. Declarations have been made by politicians and military officials, analyses have been published in interviews, various dates have been announced for when Russia might be ready to attack, and various scenarios have been discussed. With Donald Trump’s rise to power, we also face uncertainty regarding America’s participation in defending Europe in the event of a similar Russian attack. The escalation around Greenland, threats to leave NATO, the reduction of American forces on the continent, and the withdrawal of troops without prior notice… all of this only increases the fear and concern about the continent’s peaceful future.
At this point, societies have two possible ways to respond to this increasingly uncertain situation: they can either mobilize and close ranks, or the opposite: seek a way to escape this dangerous reality. The state’s task in this situation is to recognize these sentiments and take the right steps, accompanied by proper communication regarding these actions. Below, I will cite the results of a public opinion survey conducted by IBRiS on behalf of the portal Defence24, which raises many questions, as the problem is obvious. The question is what exactly is causing this situation and how to fix it. In the commentary, I will provide a link to the InfoSecurity24 article, and below that, the main theses of the study.
IBRiS survey results. How have Poles’ attitudes changed?
Comparison of Poles’ moods in the context of readiness to defend the state in 2023 and 2026.
- Readiness to defend the homeland in the general sense, i.e. readiness to make any sacrifices in the name of defending the state:
44% of Poles declare their readiness to take part in defending the state.
47% of Poles do not show such readiness.
I will add that in 2023, CBOS reported that 55% of Poles were ready for armed combat and 85% to engage in defense of the state in some other form.
- The results by age group are very important. Those ready to defend their homeland are:
In the 18–29 age category – 18%!!!
30–39 years old – 47%
In the remaining categories – 53–57%. The 40–50 generation is the most determined. - Now, what are Poles willing to sacrifice for their homeland and how these attitudes have changed in recent years:
Willingness to sacrifice one’s life and health dropped from 27 to 15%.
Willingness to devote one’s own money to defend the state dropped from 46 to 36%.
The number of people not ready to make any sacrifices increased from 14 to 30%.
Here, the research methodology probably differed from that of CBOS, where several points could be selected at the same time.
- Reaction to the outbreak of war:
20% will seek refuge in another country, 27% will flee to another region, 47% will seek refuge in their place of residence, 12% will do nothing, 9% will wait to be called up, 15% will actively volunteer to take part in the defense of the country.
Why do these sentiments matter?
How does this compare to other European countries? I recently cited ECFR data on this topic, which, among other things, shows the mood in various European countries regarding readiness to defend the country. Poland falls somewhere between Germany and Italy, and the Scandinavian countries, where this level of public readiness is consistently very high.
Why do these sentiments matter? It’s not just because we’re pleased that so many patriots are in the country, or sad that there aren’t many. It’s also a deterrent to the state—the enemy, understanding the public’s attitude, will also assess our level of determination in a potential conflict. Will it be easy for such a society to impose its will, intimidate them with the prospect of war, force them to capitulate, or vice versa—will it be so difficult that perhaps the game isn’t worth engaging in conflict with such a society?
Source: Author’s own study based on IBRiS research conducted on behalf of Defence24 and an article published by InfoSecurity24
Journalist and Editor-in-Chief of Nowiny Wschodnie, a news platform followed by more than 140,000 people on social media. A graduate in Journalism and Social Communication, he has been co-creating and developing Nowiny Wschodnie since 2017. He gained professional experience working with local and international media.
He specializes in fact-checking, countering disinformation and propaganda, and information security. His work focuses on Poland, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Polish-Ukrainian relations. He is also the founder of a non-profit organization working in the fields of integration and intercultural dialogue.